As the draft season is winding down, there will be some drafts that beat the buzzer before the Thursday night kickoff for the Superbowl defending champs and the Dallas Cowboys. With that, there is still time to make great draft decisions as well as some bad ones.
In this article, we will be highlighting Kenny Golladay and the risk associated with his ADP. He is a talented face in a new place, which drastically changes his fantasy outlook for 2021. Whether you decide to select him is up to you.
Kenny Golladay: By the Numbers
For his career, Golladay has played in a possible 47 of 64 games. Some of that may have been due to not starting his rookie year, but excluding his rookie year, he still managed to play in 36 of 48 games. Most of that time was missed in the 2020 season, so the injury-prone label may be an unfair title. That is until he suffered a hamstring injury in camp.
Golladay’s 4.3 catches per game over the last three seasons is not exactly an impressive number. Golladay however has thrived off his efficiency rather than his volume. His 72 receiving yards per game however is a more impressive stat. Extrapolated over a 17 game season would put him at 1,233 receiving yards. But can this be accomplished with Daniel Jones as his quarterback?
In 2020 we saw impressive seasons by wide receivers regardless of strong quarterback play. Allen Robinson, Robert woods, and Amari Cooper performed well regardless of their surroundings. So this may not be as much of a strike against Golladay as I make it out to be. The Giants however ranked 26th in pass attempts per game last year at 32.3. Fewer targets from a questionable quarterback don’t seem like a match made in heaven. He was brought to New York on a 4 year 72 million dollar deal to be their “X” wide receiver, so maybe they will force-feed him the ball.
Golladay has become one of the best contested-catch wide receivers in the league and he was rightfully the highest-paid wide receiver this offseason. He will likely retain the 22-23% target share he commanded in Detroit and will be one of the Giants’ biggest goal line threats.
In his 2019 break-out campaign, Golladay paced the league in touchdowns at 11 regardless of only catching 65 passes. We know he has this upside even if his total targets don’t increase from his previous workload. Provided Golladay is getting a healthy target share in the red zone, double-digit touchdowns are within his range of outcomes.
Golladay is incredibly cheap due to his ADP being at 9.01. If he doesn’t live up to his draft position this is not a cost that will sink your team. The flip side is if he hits, you’re getting a quality flex play or wide receiver two in the ninth round. If you’re into taking shots in your draft this early, Golladay is a good one at his value.
Golladay may have been paid handsomely, but he may not be the focal point of the offense. As he continues to recover from injury, Saquon Barkley will become the more featured weapon in the offense. While this is not necessarily an issue, this limits his overall outlook due to losing out on the opportunity to catch a few extra passes and touchdowns.
Since he took over as the starter, the highest a wide receiver has finished with Daniel Jones was the WR33. This was Darius Slayton in 2019. While none of the weapons they’ve had are even close to Golliday’s skill level, this does not make me feel confident in Jones’s ability to support a starting wide receiver for fantasy purposes.
There are also quite a few targets to feature in the passing game. After Golladay, Jones will look for Slayton, Shepard, Engram, and Barkley. For a position that is as volatile as wide receivers, You may be very emotional when starting Golladay only because of the inconsistency of the offense.
Golladay has not been a target of mine in any drafts so far. It has nothing to do with his actual talent but the situation around him. Jones is still a very unproven quarterback and inspires no confidence in his ability to support a fantasy-relevant wide receiver. Had he signed elsewhere this offseason, this article could have been coming from a different point of view.
As mentioned earlier, drafting Golladay at his price will not hurt your draft if he does not live up to his ADP. I just don’t believe that the ceiling is as high as his overall talent level. I love Tyler Boyd or Jakobi Meyers instead who are both being drafted near the same pick.
If Golladay proves me wrong, that just means there is another fantasy relevant player to choose from every week. However I would feel much more comfortable playing against Golladay than drafting him and expecting big production for my team to rely on.