The offseason is one of the favorite parts of fantasy for me. Why? Because I get to plant my flag for players that I think have a real chance to do some damage for the next season. Plus, if I land my picks I look like a genius. I mean come on, who doesn’t like being right? Jokes aside, making projections for players is fun. Getting to see the outcomes and the work that goes into the theory for a selected player is part of the buildup to see if it comes true for the next fantasy season.
I’m constantly building up my lists and I have quite a few players that I have my eye on heading into the 2021 fantasy football season. As the title of the article states, Buffalo Bills wideout Gabriel Davis has my eye and some real upside heading into next season. If given the chance, he should be on fantasy owners radar ahead of the draft. I mean duh, that’s why you’re here, right? So let’s get into it.
The Potential
Gabriel Davis was drafted in the 4th round by the Buffalo Bills during the 2020 NFL Draft and I have to admit that I didn’t have him on my radar in the offseason. No cap. I completely didn’t see him coming. When he was drafted, he was behind the 8 ball to me with the trade for Stefon Diggs and John Brown and Cole Beasley already locking up the other starting WR roles for the starters. It would take an injury in order for the kid. And then it happened. John Brown, after starting out the gate with 2 strong weeks with 60+ receiving yards and a touchdowns in both games, went down with a calf injury. That injury snowballed into what would be a lost season for the wide receiver as he would be hindered by calf and ankle injuries as well as landing on the Covid/Reserve list.
Week 3 was the first signal that Davis had potential, heading into the game against the LA Rams going 4 for 4 for 81 yards receiving. The rookie would post 5 more games in the season where he would crack 50 yards receiving with a 100 yard performance in Week 17 against the Miami Dolphins, torching them for 107 yards and a touchdown. Heading into the postseason, in his very first playoff game he would post a 100% catch rate against the Indianapolis Colts where he would go 4 for 4 (seems to be his favorite number or something) for 85 yards. Davis would go without a catch the following week against the Baltimore Ravens but that if you watched that game, it wasn’t a high scoring affair.
The Bills would lose the following game against the Kansas City Chiefs but Davis would end with 599 yards and 7 touchdowns. Pretty solid numbers for a rookie. And that was on 62 targets. Davis averaged 17.1 yards per reception in his rookie season. The Bills were 11th in passing attempts for the 2020 season with 596 attempts. Davis accounted for just 10.4% of the teams targets with just 62 targets. He looks to be a decent red-zone threat, catching all of his 7 touchdowns inside the 20 or lower. Now imagine if he can get on the field more and get more of Josh Allen’s attention. And there’s a possibility that he could…
2021 Outlook
With the 2021 salary cap situation likely to impact teams in some way or fashion, John Brown could end up a cap causality. If Brown is cut, the Bills would be able to save about $8 million in cap space. That would allow Gabriel Davis to slide right in as the WR 2 right behind Stefon Diggs. Per Fantasydata.com, with Brown missing time because of injury Davis was able to just over 70% of the offensive snaps for the Bills. Davis, 21 is a much young wideout than Brown, who will be 31 during next season. Davis could be the new hot thing that may go under the radar next season.
Davis’ current ADP per FantasyFootballCalculator has him placed inside the 14th round at 14.03. He’s listed as the 71st wide receiver coming off the board. If Brown is cut, you can expect that ADP to rise a bit. I would wager that because of the influx of wide receivers with hot names coming out of the draft and depending on their landing spots, could keep Davis value on the lower side. Either way, that is a steal. If Josh Allen continues to progress as a passer, Davis could be a low-key great draft day move. Browns’ removal would push 52 targets back into the Bills pool. That would allow Davis to get at least 114 targets if we combine his target share with what Brown saw in 2020.
The Bills had the 3rd ranked passing attack for 2020 while coming in 3rd in passing touchdowns on the season. Gabriel Davis could be on the ups with a potential bigger role on the incoming. That’s not a boat you want to miss. Just remember where you heard it first.
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