The Phinest Start’ EM, Sit’ EM Week 1

Week 1 Start’ Em Sit’ EM

It’s getting close to the time we all need to start setting our lineups ahead of Thursday Night Football. Even the best fantasy drafters can see the need to make a move to better their chances of getting that first W. Looking over the matchups and determining who you should start helps in this regard. Now I won’t sit here and lie like I wouldn’t just take the team I drafted and rock out with them on Week 1’s games. But everyone doesn’t think the same. Because of that, adjustments can be made to your fantasy lineups, and that’s okay too.

So let’s get to it. The first week of fantasy football is so close to starting I can hear the screaming fans in the stadium seats. And besides, everyone wants to get that first win of the season. No one wants to sit in their league chats with nothing to brag about for a week, right? And that’s why I write this column every week. Let’s get those W’s! Oh, and before we jump into the good stuff… No, I won’t be throwing big-name players like Patrick Mahomes and CeeDee Lamb on these articles. If you’re thinking about sitting those guys, what did you draft them for?

*Start Percentage data via NFL Fantasy

Week 1 Start’ EM

Tua Tagovailoa vs. LAC (35.3% Start)

Tua Tagovailoa is back with the Dolphins in 2023 after a stressful season with injuries being the main concern heading into the new league year. While fantasy managers will be reluctant to place him in their lineups so early in the season, Tua has shown to be more than capable as a fantasy starter. From Weeks 7-11, Tua was the QB5 averaging 23.2 FPPG. Now armed with a real receiving corp in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tua can really do some damage. However, a healthy Chargers defense can be tough, as the Chargers were one of the lowest in passing yards allowed during the 2022 season (seventh-fewest in the league). And in all fairness, Tua still managed to light up a tough Ravens defense for six touchdowns in Week 2 of last season.

Raheem Mostert vs. LAC (24.2% Start)

We’re going to stay with the Miami Dolphins as an opportunity has presented itself. With Jeff Wilson (abdomen) on the PUP list and rookie running back DeVon Achane more recently returning from an injured shoulder, Mostert looks to take the lead for the Dolphins backfield in Week 1. Mostert gets a Chargers defense that gave up the seventh-most rushing yards last season and allowed nearly 25 FPPG to opposing running backs. With Mostert getting a big share of work, a good fantasy outing for Week 1 looks like a “strong possible” for fantasy managers.

Miles Sanders vs. ATL (46% Start)

Miles Sanders had a great season running the ball with the Philadelphia Eagles but now finds himself with the Carolina Panthers this year. The Panthers are looking to get more pass-catching out of Sanders this season after getting targeted 26 times. Sanders gets a new division rival in the Atlanta Falcons that gave up 130 yards per game on the ground last year. Sanders should be involved early and often to help out rookie quarterback Bryce Young in his first start for the regular season.

Brandon Aiyuk vs. PIT (24.2% Start)

The most significant factor for putting Brandon Aiyuk in your lineups is due to the fact that George Kittle (groin) may miss the game and possibly more. Kittle hasn’t been able to practice in full since the middle of August. With Kittle potentially sidelined, both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel get a boost in potential targets against a Steelers defense that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2022. Brock Purdy is back under center as well so that should allow the Niners’ offense to move at a steady pace.

Jahan Dotson vs. AZ (12.1% Start)

Jahan Dotson has been making a lot of noise this offseason in camp with new quarterback Sam Howell. Dotson is one of the up-and-coming wide receivers this season and looks to be the WR2 for the Washington Commanders. Fellow Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin is currently dealing with turf toe but has been able to practice ahead of the game but Dotson could be called on to do a bit more offensively. Conversely, the Cardinals’ defense gave up nearly 30 FPPG against the wide receiver position in 2022 and it doesn’t look like the offense got any better.

Tyler Higbee vs. SEA (26.4% Start)

With Cooper Kupp on a mission to find his missing hamstring, the Rams quarterback is going to have to find some reliable targets to throw to. This is where Tyler Higbee can shine. Even with Kupp on the field, Higbee averaged 8.3 targets per game over the first six weeks of the season. Kupp being out of action for the first game could mean more work for Higbee to go with Van Jefferson now as the WR1 until Cooper Kupp returns. Seattle was around the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends last season, allowing just over nine fantasy points per game.

Sit’ EM

Anthony Richardson vs. JAX (19.1% Start)

NFL Fantasy may have gotten this one right. While Richardson is undoubtedly physically talented, he’ll step into the ring with not only a tough divisional opponent in the AFC South with the Jacksonville Jaguars but he’ll have to do it without running back Jonathan Taylor. Richardson also has to further develop as a passer and showcase his growth there. The Jaguars’ defense presents a tough obstacle there as they allowed just 17.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, the ninth-fewest among NFL defenses last year.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. PHI (94.3% Start) *BIG BENCH ALERT!!!

Rhamondre Stevenson is a heck of a runner and normally I wouldn’t bother to put him on this side of the list. But he has a tough slate in front of him with that upgraded Eagles defense this week. With run stuffers Jordan Davis, Fletcher Cox, and rookie DT Jalen Carter up front, it could be a long day for the efficient Patriots running back. The Eagles allowed just 22 FPPG to opposing running backs. Another thing to consider is that the Patriots only kept two running backs on the team which means Ezekiel Elliott will be running in tandem with Stevenson and possibly getting the goal-line action after scoring 12 touchdowns last year with the Cowboys.

Mike Evans vs. MIN (50.8% Start)

Baker Mayfield is the starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That is it… Oh… Do I have to write more than just that? Alright, fine. Evans will have to deal with a decline in the quarterback position after Tom Brady retired. Mayfield’s strength isn’t his deep ball took just 31 pass attempts over 20+ yards last season. Being handicapped away from the deep ball where Evans usually makes his bread and butter is a kick in the fantasy nuggets as it is. Mayfield also ranked 32nd in Air Yards Per Game and Per Attempt. The Vikings’ defense was especially bad against opposing wide receivers last season so maybe something shakes loose.

Darren Waller vs. DAL (92.3% Start)

Darren Waller was a significant offseason acquisition for the New York Giants and the pairing could have a great year together in the Big Apple. But their first opponent up on the schedule is a Cowboys defense that allowed just four fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, third-lowest in the league. The Cowboys’ defense is one of the best in the NFL and Daniel Jones has yet to figure out a way to get past them. Jones averaged just 212 passing yards last season against the Cowboys and the Dallas D looks to be a bit tougher this season with the additions made in the offseason.