The Phinest Start’ EM Sit’ EM – Week 13

Week 13 Start’EM Sit’EM

With just two games left before the fantasy playoffs begin, the pressure is ramping up to make the right calls on your fantasy lineups. Believe me, I understand how you may feel. In my family league, somehow both of my kids look like their teams will make the playoffs meanwhile I’m on the outside looking in needing a win to get back into the top 6 for a playoff seeding. Even if you don’t have a shot at making the playoffs, you still want to make sure you’re setting your lineups. There’s nothing worse than landing in your league’s “toilet bowl” and trying to survive getting the league punishment. The best way to avoid that altogether is to make sure you don’t end up at the bottom of your fantasy leagues.

With teams missing players because of the bye week, now is the chance to get a win and get back in the playoff race in your fantasy leagues.

Week 13 Start’ EM

*Start percentage via NFL Fantasy

CJ Stroud vs. DEN (95.3% Start)

CJ Stroud has been one of the hottest fantasy quarterbacks this season, and he’s been absolutely cooking this year for fantasy managers. Stroud is averaging 20.3 FPPG and has been red hot over the last three weeks, scoring 10 passing touchdowns over his last four games. Stroud will be looking to keep this hot streak against a Denver Broncos defense that has been sturdier than usual over the last few weeks. Denver slowed down the Bills’ passing attack to just 177 yards and two interceptions for Josh Allen and also cooled off hot backup quarterback Josh Dobbs to just 221 passing yards and an interception. The Broncos have allowed the 12th-most FPPG heading into Week 13.

Brock Purdy vs. PHI (61.5% Start)

Brock Purdy will have to play lights out against the Philadelphia Eagles this week, and the pressure will be on him to do so. Purdy will take on an Eagles defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns (T-2nd). The Eagles’ defense also has a chink that can be exploited by the Niners’ offense in the fact that the Eagles are tied for fifth-worst in interceptions with just six on the season.

De’Von Achane vs. WAS (22% Start)

This one is a bit more “wishful thinking” after Achane went down two weeks ago on the same knee that forced him to miss four games earlier this season. Achane was never in any danger of re-injury, but the Dolphins brass made the right call holding him out so that he could recover properly. Now Achane has to reassert his dominance as one of the most explosive backs in the game. Even after all the time he’s missed, Achane still ranks third in FPPG at just over 20 ppg out of all fantasy running backs. The Commanders looked pretty vulnerable to the Cowboys on Turkey Day, giving up 22 fantasy points to Tony Pollard and 6.1 y/a.

Jahmyr Gibbs vs. NO (98.6% Start)

There was some concern about whether or not Gibbs would go on the shelf after David Montgomery returned from IR, but Gibbs has been a consistent producer working in tandem with Montgomery. Over the last three weeks, Gibbs has averaged 19.7 FPPG, making him the RB2. The Saints are allowing 4.5 y/a on the ground heading into Week 13 but are allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Amari Cooper vs. LAR (96.5% Start)

Amari Cooper has lost his starting quarterback Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury and is now floating in a QB carousel of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker, and newly signed vet Joe Flacco. Recent reports have Flacco taking starter reps this week with DTR dealing with a concussion from Week 12 and a lack of faith in PJ Walker with his turnover issues. Should Flacco start, there should be plenty of targets going Cooper’s way with Flacco locking in on his number one guy. The Rams are allowing just over 31 FPPG to opposing wide receivers and with fellow wide receiver Elijah Moore not doing much this fantasy season, the burden may be on Cooper to get the job done.

George Pickens vs. ARI (21% Start)

The “selling” of George Pickens being more involved in the offense after the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada has yet to take shape but it’s only been one week so we can’t harp too much. Pickens has seen just 15 targets over the last three weeks but they will need Pickens to be more involved going forward if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Pickens is averaging just 11.4 FPPG this season but gets a much easier matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who are giving up the fifth-most air yards heading into the game. Ranking 14th in fantasy points allowed doesn’t hurt either.

Juwan Johnson vs. DET (1.9% Start)

This has more to do with the “last man standing” mentality than anything else but let’s get dangerous. Johnson moves to the top of the list in sure-handed targets with the wide receiver corp for the Saints decimated with injuries. Chris Olave (concussion), Michael Thomas (knee/IR), and Rashid Shaheed (thigh) are all in danger of missing Week 13. Olave must clear the league’s concussion protocol and Shaheed is unlikely to play because of the thigh injury. That leaves Juwan Johnson as the potential number two pass catcher for Derek Carr against a Lions defense that’s giving up just over 12 FPPG. With all the bodies dropping last week, Johnson saw seven targets against the Atlanta Falcons. Maybe he could see more this week.

Week 13 Sit’ EM

Geno Smith vs. DAL (65% Start)

Geno Smith has been up and down this year and now faces off against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. Smith started out solid with two stinkers in Weeks 1 & 4 sandwiched between two good games in Weeks 2 & 3 where he posted 15+ fantasy points in both games. Now he gets the Dallas Cowboys, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Geno Smith needs to turn it around as the Seahawks are 6-5 heading into the game but Dallas may present too tough of a challenge to handle.

Miles Sanders vs. TB (52.2% Start)

Miles Sanders’ kryptonite has been showing for weeks now playing behind the Carolina Panthers’ porous offensive line. Dropping from the Eagles’ top-notch oline to the Panthers has severely hurt Sanders’ fantasy production in 2023. Even the most desperate should stay away as the Tampa Bay Bucs ninth-best rush defense comes in for Week 13. Sanders should be on waivers instead of on fantasy benches. Chuba Hubbard may be a better option than Sanders anyway at this point.

Terry McLaurin vs. MIA (96.4% Start)

It feels like I’ve had Terry McLaurin on the “Sit’Em” side more than I’ve had him on the “Start’EM” section this season. It has been for good reason. Despite seeing a large target share among the Commanders’ wide receiver group, McLaurin hasn’t cracked double-digit fantasy points over the last three weeks. Over that same span, McLaurin has seen the 10th-most targets among fantasy wide receivers. “Scary Terry” is a big gamble this week against the Miami Dolphins with Jalen Ramsey back on the field. Even with a big target share, if your fantasy team is on the playoff bubble, it may be too great to risk playing him even against the 13th-worst fantasy defense against wide receivers.

Gerald Everett vs. NE (18% Start)

Gerald Everett has been back from injury and should be a focal point in an offense lacking weapons behind WR Keenan Allen. However, Donald Parham is still lurking for red zone work and Justin Herbert seems to have eyes for just Allen. Everett did catch a touchdown in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens but on just four targets. Lack of targets even in an offense lacking weapons is a red flag. Wide receiver Josh Palmer could also be returning to the mix so that muddies the target share even further.